Wednesday, August 18, 2010

DOSE ISRAEL ATTACK ATOMIC SITE OF BUSHEHR?

DOSE ISRAEL ATTACK ATOMIC SITE OF BUSHEHR IN SOUTH OF IRAN UNTILL THE ENDWEEK?! 
I SHOW ITS IMPOSIBLE BECUASE FOR THE THREE FOLLOWING REASONS :
READ THE REST IN PERSIAN PLEASE. 
ایا این هفته به نیروگاه بوشهر حمله خواهد شد؟ !


یاداوری:از کلیه خوانندگانی که مایلند مطلب "خواب سیاسی اولین سحر ماه مبارک رمضان" را که حاوی یک طنز سیاسی  نویسنده این وبلاگ سعید شجاعی سعدی است را  بخوانند لطفا انرا در مطلب پایین این نوشته مطالعه فرمایید.




سایت خبری "فاکس نیوز "  امریکا و نیز "ها ارتز" اسراییل در روز سه شنبه مورخ 89/5/26  برابر با 17 اگوست 2010 خبری را بنقل از  "جان بلتون" نماینده سابق امریکا در شورای امنیت " منتشر کردند که حاکی از ان بود که اسراییل تا اخر هفته جاری و قبل از سوخت گذاری نیروگاه بوشهر به این نیروگاه حمله خواهد نمود تقریبا هنوز از انتشار این خبر دقایقی نگذشته بود که همه خبرگزاریها  و رسانه های دیگر  شروع به انتشار و تحلیل این خبر کردند ( شما متن گزارش دو سایت خبر رسانی فوق را در ذیل بزبان انگلیسی  می توانید مطالعه فرمایید) اما بنظر من این کار به سه دلیل مهم انجام نشدنی است:


 1- اقتصاد  منطقه خاورمیانه و اسیا و غرب و اسراییل و در کل جهان تحمل فرو پاشی و نابسامانی بسیار عظیم  و ناگهانی مالی و تجاری و صنعتی  را که از ابتدایی ترین پیامدهای اولیه چنین تهاجمی است را ندارند بخصوص که بحرانهای سیاسی و اجتماعی و اقتصادی هم اکنون غرب را در بر گرفته و حمله به نیروگاه بوشهر  و واکنش بسیار شدید و نابودگر ایران اسلامی عملا این بحرانها را هزاران برابر می گرداند لذا بدلیل هزینه غیر قابل تحمل بنظر نمیرد چنین حمله ای حداقل در هفته جاری صورت پذیرد .


2- اسراییل و نیروهای امریکایی و غیره  در غرب و منطقه بنظر نمی رسد چنین ساده اندیش باشند که ندانند و نفهمند چنین عملی می تواند به یک جنگ تمام عیار و دامنه دار و طولانی تبدیل گردد که نهایتا به جنگ جهانی سوم منجر خواهد شد که طی ان نه تنها تلفات چند صد میلیونی و بلکه احتمالاچند میلیاردی از نتایج ملموس  اولیه چنین جنگی می تواند باشد که همچنین نابودی کامل و یا در حد کامل محیط زیست کره زمین نیز از دیگر پیامدهای چنین جنگی خواهد بود . 


3-  چنین جنگی در نهایت  اگر نفعی داشته باشد قطعا بنفع روسیه و هند و چین خواهد بود و این سه شیر خفته ! بمحض مشاهده ضعف شدید و کاهش توان امریکا و غرب قطعا بر علیه منافع و حتی موجودیت امریکا و اروپا قد علم خواهند کرد و امریکای ضعیف شده توسط جنگ با ایران را از پا در خواهند اورد بعلاوه هم اسراییل و هم غرب و امریکا بخوبی می دانند هزینه کنار امدن با ایران بسیار کمتر از جنگ و مقابله با ان است بخصوص که ایران تمایل دارد تا در حل و فصل مشکلات و مسایل منطقه و جهان از راههای صلح امیز مشارکت فعال داشته باشد.


پس بنظر نمی رسد اظهارات جان بلتون بیشتر از یک جنگ روانی و یک موج خبری باشد که جهت ابراز وجود و عرض اندام سیاسی در رقابت با رقبای دمکرات حاکم بر کاخ سفید انهم در نزدیکی انتخابات میاندوره ی کنگره امریکا صورت گرفته باشد . تنها در صورتی چنین اتفاقی (حمله به نیروگاه بوشهر ) خواهد افتاد که باور کنیم همه قصد خودکشی و نابودی منطقه و جهان را کرده باشند که انهم بسیار بعید و ناممکن بنظر می رسد. 




سعید شجاعی سعدی - شیراز- ایران چهارشنبه 89/5/27
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Israel Has Until Week's End to Strike Iran Nuclear Facility, Bolton Says




Published August 17, 2010 | FoxNews.com


AP2009
In this November 2009 photo released by the semi-official Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA), the reactor building of Iran's Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant is seen. (AP Photo)
Israel has until the weekend to launch a military strike on Iran's first nuclear plant before the humanitarian risk of an attack becomes too great, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton said Tuesday. 


A Russian company is expected to help Iran start loading nuclear fuel into its plant starting on Saturday, after which an attack on the Bushehr reactor could trigger harmful radiation, which Israel wants to avoid, Bolton said. So unless the Israelis act immediately to shut down the facility, it will be too late.


"Once it's close to the reactor ... the risk is when the reactor is attacked, there will be a release of radiation into the air," Bolton told FoxNews.com. "It's most unlikely that they would act militarily after fuel rods are loaded." 


Earlier Tuesday, Bolton told Fox Business Network the Israelis will have to move in the "next eight days" if they want to attack the Bushehr facility -- a reference to the window between when the start-up was announced last week and the loading date. Bolton said Tuesday that the date has fluctuated, but he described the start-up as the ultimate deadline. 


Though Iranian officials insist the reactor is for peaceful purposes, Bolton warned about the danger of the up-and-running reactor. 


"What this does is give Iran a second route to nuclear weapons in addition to enriched uranium," Bolton said. "It's a very, very huge victory for Iran." 


Bolton, who was U.S. ambassador during the Bush administration, expressed doubt that Israel was planning a military strike but suggested it's an open question. 


"If they were going to do anything, they certainly wouldn't be talking about it," he said. 


He noted that the reactor gives Iran something that both Iraq and Syria were never able to achieve because their facilities were destroyed. 


"Iran will have achieved something that no other opponent of Israel, no other enemy of the United States really in the Middle East has, and that is a functioning nuclear reactor," he said on Fox Business Network. 


Iranian officials on Tuesday warned Israel not to take military action. Iranian media quoted Ahmad Vahidi, Iran's defense minister, as saying Israel would be taking a huge risk with such an attack. 


"We may lose a power plant, but the whole existence of the Zionist regime will be jeopardized," Vahidi was quoted as saying. 


The reactor project has been in existence for decades, but the Russians have helped push it to the finish line. Russian state firm Rosatom announced last week that the Bushehr facility would be starting up on Aug. 21. According to the Iranian state Mehr news agency, the head of that company, Sergey Novikov, says the plant "just generates electricity."
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Published 14:29 17.08.10Latest update 14:29 17.08.10
Ex-U.S. diplomat: Israel unlikely to strike Iran nuclear plant
John Bolton tells U.S. television that Iran on verge of establishing second route for developing nuclear weapons, says Bushehr reactor was 'significant victory' for Tehran.


By Haaretz Service
Israel is unlikely to attack Iran's nuclear reactor in Bushehr, which will soon be online, former U.S. envoy to the United Nations John Bolton told the Fox Business Network on Monday, adding that the Russian-built facility represents a major step forward for Iran's nuclear weapons aspirations.



Satellite image of the Iranian nuclear reactor at Bushehr, January 3, 2002


Photo by: Getty
Russia said Friday that it will begin loading nuclear fuel into the Bushehr reactor, Iran's first atomic power station, on August 21; this is an irreversible step toward the launch of the Bushehr plant after years of delays.


Russia agreed in 1995 to build the Bushehr plant on the site of a project begun in the 1970s by German company Siemens, but delays have haunted the $1 billion project and diplomats say Moscow has used it as a lever in relations with Tehran.


The United States has criticized Moscow for pushing ahead with the Bushehr project at a time when major powers including Russia are pressing Tehran to allay fears that its nuclear energy program may be geared to develop weapons.


But Western fears that the Bushehr project could help Iran develop a nuclear weapon were lessened when Moscow reached an agreement with Tehran obliging it to return spent fuel to Russia. Weapons-grade plutonium can be derived from spent fuel rods.


Speaking to Fox on Monday, Bolton said that Israel was unlikely to attack the Bushehr reactor, saying that "Israel's got a problem."


"Once the fuel rods are inserted into the reactor and attack on the reactor would almost certainly release radiation into the atmosphere, given where Bushehr is located right on the Persian Gulf possibly into the water as well," Bolton said, adding that "from Israel's point of view if they were going to do anything militarily about Bushehr you got a few days until the fuel rods are inserted."


The former UN envoy also said Israel would not attack the reactor since it was interested in the bigger picture of Iran's nuclear aspirations, saying that Israel has "the rest of Iran's nuclear program, the Iranian enrichment facility and so on to worry about too and I don't think Israel has the luxury to attack in the next few days, wait a few months and attack again."


In the interview, Bolton also said that the completion of the reactor was a "significant victory for Iran."


"They will be beginning the process of brining online a 1000 megawatt reactor. When it becomes fully operational the spent fuel coming out of the reactor will be plutonium which could be reprocessed chemically and used for nuclear weapons," Bolton said.


The former ambassador to the UN added that Iran was "on the verge of achieving something that Saddam Hussein was not ale to achieve, Bashar al-Assad in Syria was not able to achieve and that's getting a second route to nuclear weapons."


"It’s a very very significant step forward for the Iranian nuclear program," Bolton said.

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